Tuesday, September 23, 2008

What will rise from Mbeki's ashes?

Mbeki's resignation ripple effect is starting to be apparent. Mbeki did not loose time in reigniting the controversy surrounding the prosecution of Jacob Zuma and is insisting on revising the conclusions of Judge Nicholson. How exactly his resignation and Zuma's dismissal of charges are related is very complex. It is possible, however, that Mbeki, by resigning, bit the bullet so as to give himself more leverage on the Zuma case. He took responsibility for his piecemeal alienation by the ANC that started when he lost the presidency of the party to Zuma, now, it is Zuma's turn to face his charges. I don't think Mbeki's departure was magnanimous; he was ousted for his belligerence towards Zuma. He denies being involved in the prosecution, but what his apparent is that the belligerence has not dissipated.
The bigger issue that this fight underlines is the widening division within the ANC. Nobel Peace prize Laureate Desmond Tutu expressed his discontentment noting that "The so-called recalling of the President of our land fits the pattern of settling of scores and the throwing about of weight." Mbeki has strong supporters, notably among the ministers, and his downfall will not be without repercussions for the government. It also implies that many within the party are against the rise of Zuma. Some have talked about the creation of a new party, but this is mere speculation at this point.
I think this is a turning point in South African politics and its de facto one party government. The now blatant feuds within the ANC exacerbate the divisions that already existed and even if it does not result in the fractionalization of the party, it has already bolstered the other parties' support. It might not be immediately visible, probably not for the next elections, but a political gear has beens set in motion. A development that could result in a healthier democratic system, or in a backlash and further concentration of power in the hands of the heavy weights of the ANC.

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